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Archive for the ‘Economic Forcasting’ Category

Will the U.S. Dollar Continue to Smile?(*)

Posted in Commodities, Economic Forcasting, Economy, tagged , , on May 19, 2009 | Leave a Comment »

*Reference to the ‘Dollar Smile’ theory (explained by Macro Man, coined by Morgan Stanley):
One possible explanation is an emerging school of thought that a US recession/quasi-recession is actually good for the dollar. According to the proponents of this theory, weak/negative US growth is both damaging to the rest of the world and a catalyst to [...]

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3-Month Market Checkup

Posted in Economic Forcasting, Market Sentiment, tagged , on March 25, 2009 | Leave a Comment »

I just looked through my archives and discovered that I engage in some sort of market prognostication about every three months…The most recent one from January is a good place to pick up for this edition (if at all curious, here’s September and August).
US Treasury debt is an unreasonably low yielding investment, meaning this is [...]

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Light Posts…

Posted in Economic Forcasting, Investing, Market Sentiment on December 9, 2008 | 1 Comment »

I have a terrible string of exams coming up, so I won’t be writing about very much until December 16th (when they’re all over).
Here are my thoughts on the market, since I won’t be able to embed silver linings (or black clouds) into anything for a while:

This is not “the” bottom. Volatility remains far too [...]

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Comparative Bear Markets

Posted in Economic Forcasting, Economy, Investing, tagged on November 30, 2008 | Leave a Comment »

Via TheBigPicture:

Time should be kept in perspective; we can argue that we are 1 year into this bear market, with the fate of the big 3 unresolved, 4 banks (B of A, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley) left without a government back stop like Citi received, and unemployment still relatively low in comparison [...]

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“How to keep your nest egg from cracking”

Posted in Economic Forcasting, Investing, Stock Analysis, tagged , , , on September 14, 2008 | 2 Comments »

While I find much of our financial and economic news inspiring, It is not very often that I find something that really resonates with me from a moral perspective.
While it is bothersome on many levels that [Bear Stearns, Fannie & Freddie, Indy Mac, and probably Lehman Brothers/Washington Mutual/AIG] have failed in our free market system, [...]

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Tuesday; Turning Point in Financial Crisis?

Posted in Commodities, Economic Forcasting, Financials, Global Economy, tagged , , , , , on August 13, 2008 | 1 Comment »

August 13th:
I’ll be starting class again soon, so I’m not sure how much blogging I’ll do going forward (barring anything fun to write about).
This will be one of my last posts before school, and I think this is a good time to write what I’ve been feeling about the markets for a while.
Well, the Olympics [...]

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Rates unchanged.

Posted in Economic Forcasting, tagged , on August 5, 2008 | Leave a Comment »

August 5th:
Rates are kept at 2%, all sectors but oil and commodities rally, and the dollar gets stronger. *did I read the wrong headline, because based on that information I thought rates would be at 2.25%*
CNBC was rather amusing, as the crew was trying to diagnose the market’s behavior: they concluded that the traders didn’t [...]

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What’s the theme?

Posted in Economic Forcasting on July 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment »

I have talked before about trying to identify the sentiment of the market. After all, prolonged sentiment can establish the market trend. (In case you were wondering, the sentiment seems to be pretty negative, but who could be sure?) We have been subjected to a stream of very bad news since the last Fed meeting, [...]

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Can oil refiners see the light at the end of the tunnel?

Posted in Economic Forcasting, Stock Analysis, tagged , , on June 23, 2008 | 2 Comments »

This is a particularly interesting issue if we consider the long-term future of refiners. I, for one, am a buyer of peak oil. It seems as though no one can verify the amount of oil the Saudis claim to have (maybe this is why their relief efforts have provided NO RELIEF in crude futures market), and the only [...]

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